Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6bc3…4972
sports · 997 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,567 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,531 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$497
Realized−$1,531
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses423 / 553
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions59
Markets (closed)976 / 997
History coverage33d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day81.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 59 History 976 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847
7 days−$707
14 days−$2,968
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $16 $46 +$30 (+195%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $18 $39 +$21 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 42¢ 74¢ $20 $37 +$16 (+79%)
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 62¢ 100¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+61%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 45¢ 61¢ $18 $25 +$6 (+36%)
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 69¢ 99¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $8 $22 +$14 (+162%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 77¢ $8 $18 +$11 (+141%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 52¢ 100¢ $8 $15 +$7 (+94%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 63¢ 100¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+59%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 61¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 58¢ 79¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 39¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-27%)
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 42¢ 94¢ $4 $8 +$5 (+124%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 48¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+108%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 77¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+245%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-01-03? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 202 Jun 12 $5 −$20 -376%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs NAVI Junior (BO3) Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: GnG Amazigh vs Vibranium Esports (BO3) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$40 -172%
Will Trump say "Affordability" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$4 -404%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$1 -309%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$8 -17845%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$8 -2810%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$1 -312%
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 12 $2 −$7 -334%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$1 -288%
Senators vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Brisbane International, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Mattia B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Sabres vs. Lightning Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Clo Jun 12 $3 −$5 -162%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Islanders vs. Blue Jackets Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats: O/U 154.5 Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$863
sports 38% −$198
weather 11% +$212
crypto 3% −$5
tech 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 18m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 54¢ $4 20m
Tucuman: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 63¢ $2 22m
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 58¢ $4 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $2 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $3 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 35m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $3 45m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 47m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 49m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 44¢ $5 2h
ITF Nice: Oana Georgeta Simion vs Jenny Lim BUY Jenny Lim 65¢ $3 2h
ITF Martos: Emile Hudd vs Joao Domingues BUY Emile Hudd 58¢ $3 2h
ITF San Gregorio: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Alessandra Mazzola BUY Aurora Zantedeschi 62¢ $2 2h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 56¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 58¢ $3 2h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $3 2h
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 57¢ $2 2h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 58¢ $2 2h
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Zdenek Kolar 64¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -27.6% -34.5% 39% 37% -27.2%
≤30d 940 -11.5% -19.9% 43% 40% -14.2%
≤90d 976 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 40% -20.9%
all 976 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 40% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover81.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 40% -20.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 35% -28.5%
15% -34.8% 30% -35.4%
20% -41.2% 23% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.06 · official $498.53 (match) · 3500 history records