Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bc7…5fdc crypto 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-9%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$257
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -30.1% -36.7% 31% 25% -27.3%
≤30d 32 -30.1% -36.7% 31% 25% -27.3%
≤90d 32 -30.1% -36.7% 31% 25% -27.3%
all 32 -30.1% -36.7% 31% 25% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 25% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 19% -34.3%
15% -48.3% 6% -40.6%
20% -53.4% 6% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $72 −$53 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$28 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $146 +$22 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$13 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$52 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $91 −$23 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $118 −$26 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$37 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $67 +$93 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $88 −$20 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$13 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$28 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $29 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$2 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $63 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records