Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6B 0x6bc7…4ad4 world 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$60,271 (+70%) realized +$60,552 · open −$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%151W / 222L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$907now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$339
14 days+$696
30 days+$7,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$37,436
other 22% +$18,996
sports 3% −$1,639
politics 0% −$241
finance 0% −$17
crypto 0% −$6
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +112.1% +91.9% 55% 50% +45.7%
≤30d 61 +77.1% +60.3% 41% 38% +99.0%
≤90d 134 +21.4% +9.8% 38% 34% -14.2%
all 373 +58.8% +43.7% 40% 36% +48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.7% 36% +48.0%
10% +29.9% 32% +33.8%
15% +17.4% 31% +20.9%
20% +5.9% 27% +9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +97% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$506 vs −$98 · ×5.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$907
Realized+$60,552
Unrealized−$281
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses151 / 222
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions27
Markets (closed)373 / 400
History coverage361d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $214 $236 +$22 (+10%)
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $248 $234 −$14 (-6%)
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? Yes 13¢ 29¢ $52 $114 +$62 (+118%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 68¢ 16¢ $223 $54 −$170 (-76%)
Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $16 $35 +$19 (+117%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $28 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 27¢ $44 $27 −$17 (-39%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 36¢ 10¢ $80 $21 −$59 (-73%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $32 $20 −$12 (-38%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-19%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-42%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 83¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-55%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 31¢ 7¢ $47 $10 −$37 (-78%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-67%)
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? Yes 3¢ 10¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+188%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $11 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-66%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 44¢ 26¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 32¢ 5¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 18 $30 +$49 +162%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 +$24 +56%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $58 +$41 +71%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $46 +$53 +115%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$8 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $28 +$32 +115%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $62 +$118 +190%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $77 +$57 +73%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$17 +108%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 11 $25 −$13 -54%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $42 −$18 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $501 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $166 +$450 +271%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Jun 06 $5 +$9 +169%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,148 +$3,998 +127%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $118 +$122 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 4¢ $2 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 92¢ $33 5h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 15¢ $28 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 1¢ $1 8h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $43 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 9h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 75¢ $6 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 12¢ $6 15h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $5 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $5 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 71¢ $11 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $13 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $907.39 · official $907.39 (match) · 3376 history records