Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bc8…d7e7 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$29 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$25
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$29
other 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.2% -6.7% 47% 47% +6.5%
≤30d 46 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.2%
≤90d 46 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.2%
all 46 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 48% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 48% -8.2%
10% -19.3% 46% -17.0%
15% -27.1% 43% -25.0%
20% -34.2% 35% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)46 / 50
History coverage15d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 54¢ 53¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 47¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 40¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $33 −$2 -7%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $7 −$1 -17%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $8 +$5 +57%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $20 +$24 +116%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $26 −$6 -23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $44 −$5 -10%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 +$12 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $72 −$10 -14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $54 −$8 -14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +95%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $29 +$25 +86%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$3 -48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$1 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$4 -61%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 08 $3 +$3 +87%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $13 −$10 -75%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $16 −$15 -93%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $5 +$11 +213%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1 +$1 +136%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$14 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$12 +78%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $46 −$32 -70%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13 +$11 +86%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 $0 +1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $39 +$9 +22%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $16 +$23 +143%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) Jun 06 $19 −$3 -16%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $14 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $13 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $17 8m
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 99¢ $20 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 20¢ $6 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $13 27m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 25¢ $13 27m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $20 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $39 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 40¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $19 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 38¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $17 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $13 4h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $44 4h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $8 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $20 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $29 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $20 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $6 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 87¢ $26 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $20 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $5 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 42¢ $15 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $19 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $29 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $17 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.45 · official $12.75 (match) · 112 history records