Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bc9…ead7 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 55L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$5
other 38% −$14
sports 9% +$5
politics 2% +$9
finance 1% −$12
culture 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 29 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 3% -9.7%
all 96 +1.2% -8.5% 43% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage472d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $150 $157 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $136 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $269 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $69 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $504 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $173 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $510 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $297 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $316 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $354 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $157 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $172 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $155 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $350 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $171 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $110 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $91 −$12 -14%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $159 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $86 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $79 −$9 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $172 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $170 +$20 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $170 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $914 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $387 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $154 +$4 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $87 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $85 +$3 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $910 −$8 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,246 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $915 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,007 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $149 −$17 -12%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $929 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 75–79? Jul 10 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 85¢ $150 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $131 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $136 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $55 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $43 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $62 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $36 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $83 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $27 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $8 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $71 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $139 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $159 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $174 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.65 · official $156.65 (match) · 360 history records