Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6B 0x6bc9…ab64 crypto 366 markets active 14h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,745 (+131%) realized +$20,748 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +68% what you keep after slip
Net edge+68%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%118W / 246L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days+$3,739
14 days+$6,159
30 days+$15,249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$15,347
crypto 34% +$4,936
world 5% −$49
politics 4% −$2
other 3% +$510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+81.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +386.9% +340.6% 41% 41% +59.8%
≤30d 82 +231.9% +200.3% 34% 34% +119.4%
≤90d 175 +197.8% +169.4% 47% 45% +118.3%
all 364 +100.7% +81.6% 32% 30% +109.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.6% 30% +109.6%
10% +64.2% 28% +89.5%
15% +48.3% 26% +71.2%
20% +33.8% 25% +54.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +138% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +188% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$40 · ×6.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized+$20,748
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses118 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions2
Markets (closed)364 / 366
History coverage104d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $405 $407 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $98 $93 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $8 +$41 +521%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $240 −$240 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$603 +1186%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $414 −$414 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 18 $100 −$1 -1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 17 $701 −$2 -0%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $0 +$2 +2400%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $520 +$2,626 +505%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 +$288 +2528%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 +$259 +6900%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $23 +$293 +1255%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $101 −$77 -76%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $170 +$50 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $118 +$30 +25%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $207 −$207 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $140 +$860 +614%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$220 +880%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $32 +$410 +1284%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $37 +$655 +1760%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $670 −$670 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $300 +$4,196 +1398%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Masked Regime - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $300 −$300 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $135 −$135 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $593 −$593 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $4 +$28 +643%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $0 +$1 +900%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $105 +$759 +723%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $135 −$135 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $14 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $2 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $12 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $2 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $10 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $2 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 40¢ $9 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 5¢ $8 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 5¢ $0 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $199 26h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 2¢ $120 35h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 4¢ $120 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Under 90¢ $653 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 2¢ $94 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 2¢ $120 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $7 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 10¢ $19 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 5¢ $61 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 5¢ $39 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 10¢ $81 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $99 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 4¢ $120 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $120 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.27 · official $500.27 (match) · 1756 history records