Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bcd…012b other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
politics 20% +$31
other 19% +$16
tech 9% $0
crypto 3% −$3
economics 2% $0
culture 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 42 +13.9% +3.0% 52% 14% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 14% -4.2%
10% -6.8% 12% -13.4%
15% -15.8% 12% -21.7%
20% -24.1% 10% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.33 per $1 lost it wins $7.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage460d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $2 $0 +15%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $11 −$3 -28%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 17 $46 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +125%
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suri Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Durand win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +40%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 02 $14 +$8 +57%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $7 +$31 +471%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 28 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes score May 25 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 23 $19 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$4 +51%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $45 33m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $9 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $47 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $29 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $1 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records