Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6bce…df79 crypto 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$18,111 (+32%) realized +$18,134 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%204W / 234L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day303.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-45.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 -59.0% -62.9% 32% 31% -71.8%
≤30d 438 -40.2% -45.9% 47% 46% -43.2%
≤90d 438 -40.2% -45.9% 47% 46% -43.2%
all 438 -40.2% -45.9% 47% 46% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover303.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.9% 46% -43.2%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 26% -48.7%
15% -55.8% 6% -53.6%
20% -60.1% 1% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$177 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$18,134
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses204 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)438 / 278
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day303.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 75¢ 68¢ $222 $199 −$23 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $296 −$296 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $664 −$664 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $760 −$760 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $382 −$382 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $905 −$905 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $426 −$426 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $335 −$335 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $712 −$712 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $326 −$326 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $417 −$417 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $522 −$522 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $402 −$402 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.60 · official $198.60 (match) · 3500 history records