Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bd5…ef34 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,248 (-2%) realized −$2,248 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,001per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$61
other 39% −$198
sports 13% −$2,024
world 2% −$2
culture 2% +$23
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -4.4% -13.5% 20% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 11% -11.2%
10% -21.8% 11% -19.7%
15% -29.3% 7% -27.4%
20% -36.3% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,379) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$29 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,248
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,001
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,558 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 28 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 21 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,295 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,189 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,854 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 03 $475 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $495 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,715 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,131 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $412 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 01 $685 +$3 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,474 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $3,346 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,396 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,250 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,186 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,379 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2,697 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $486 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $487 4h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $488 21h
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $488 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $486 25h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $487 28h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $488 47h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $489 2d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $488 6d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $489 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $485 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $485 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $488 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $489 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $491 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $492 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $639 11d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 13d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $615 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $616 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $618 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $619 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $617 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $618 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $607 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $608 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $627 20d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $628 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $542 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 420 history records