Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:39:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bd6…bf96 sports 449 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$99 (+1%) realized +$134 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%215W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days−$457
14 days−$1,445
30 days−$1,217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$32
other 1% −$10
politics 0% −$8
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -26.2% -33.2% 37% 37% -35.6%
≤30d 88 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 36% -35.5%
≤90d 326 -16.8% -24.7% 41% 40% -18.8%
all 447 +1.1% -8.5% 48% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 47% -9.2%
10% -17.3% 47% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 46% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 44% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$30 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses215 / 232
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)447 / 449
History coverage198d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 50¢ 30¢ $86 $51 −$35 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $89 +$86 +97%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 23 $31 $0 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $32 −$1 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $62 +$44 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $31 +$35 +113%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $99 +$81 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $84 +$75 +90%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $94 −$93 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $220 −$217 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $98 −$97 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $31 +$34 +113%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $59 +$34 +58%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $31 −$30 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $115 +$27 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $31 +$32 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $16 +$16 +100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $32 +$33 +105%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $96 −$7 -7%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $88 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 100¢ $175 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 4h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $58 4h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 4h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 4h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 50¢ $31 4h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 48¢ $29 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $31 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $32 5h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $31 5h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $31 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $19 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $2 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $6 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 29¢ $2 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $29 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 31h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds AND Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2 BUY 17¢ $7 32h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $62 32h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $0 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $41 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $33 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 50¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $31 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $28 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $17 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.91 · official $50.05 (match) · 1166 history records