trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 08 | $21 | $0 | -2% |
| Will "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song o | Jun 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Beef" during Wisconsin events? | Jun 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? | Jun 07 | $5 | +$4 | +72% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? | Jun 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? | Jun 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 05 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? | Jun 05 | $113 | −$113 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? | Jun 03 | $4 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | Jun 01 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $10 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube v | Jun 01 | $10 | +$14 | +133% |
| Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? | Jun 01 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -55.0% | -59.3% | 17% | 17% | -60.7% |
| ≤30d | 13 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 38% | 23% | -51.7% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 38% | 23% | -51.7% |
| all | 13 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 38% | 23% | -51.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.2% | 23% | -51.7% |
| 10% | -46.8% | 23% | -56.3% |
| 15% | -51.9% | 15% | -60.5% |
| 20% | -56.6% | 15% | -64.4% |