trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -55.0% | -59.3% | 43% | 0% | -78.8% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -55.0% | -59.3% | 43% | 0% | -78.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -36.6% | -42.7% | 40% | 10% | -63.6% |
| all | 17 | -23.7% | -31.0% | 53% | 12% | -4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.0% | 12% | -4.1% |
| 10% | -37.6% | 12% | -13.3% |
| 15% | -43.6% | 6% | -21.7% |
| 20% | -49.1% | 6% | -29.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET | Jun 23 | $82 | −$82 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET | Jun 23 | $54 | −$52 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET | Jun 23 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Jun 23 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Jun 23 | $13 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | Jun 23 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? | Jun 23 | $20 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | May 12 | $20 | +$16 | +79% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 25 | $20 | −$2 | -8% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 25 | $27 | −$14 | -53% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Mar 20 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Mar 20 | $25 | $0 | +1% |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | Mar 01 | $22 | +$2 | +8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Dec 08 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? | Dec 08 | $1,522 | +$394 | +26% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 05 | $1,840 | +$20 | +1% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Dec 04 | $10 | −$7 | -72% |