Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6bdc…e018 crypto 1840 markets active 3h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$146 (+2%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%964W / 820L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$272
14 days−$143
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$999
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 553 -14.6% -22.8% 45% 40% -20.5%
≤30d 1462 +3.4% -6.5% 54% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 1784 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 51% -5.6%
all 1784 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 51% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 51% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.8% 49% -14.6%
15% -23.9% 47% -22.9%
20% -31.4% 45% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses964 / 820
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1784 / 1840
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1784 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - August 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 3500 history records