Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6bdc…0e26 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$383 (+19%) realized +$405 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$186
sports 25% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +15.6% +4.6% 80% 70% +12.7%
≤30d 10 +15.6% +4.6% 80% 70% +12.7%
≤90d 10 +15.6% +4.6% 80% 70% +12.7%
all 10 +15.6% +4.6% 80% 70% +12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 70% +12.7%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 50% +1.9%
15% -14.5% 40% -7.9%
20% -22.9% 20% -17.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$55 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.37 per $1 lost it wins $3.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions13
Markets (closed)10 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 50¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-23%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Yes 37¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$41 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $201 +$7 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $76 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 16h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $76 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $207 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $863.17 · official $863.18 (match) · 35 history records