Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:32:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bdf…bc8c world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
other 27% −$2
world 22% +$5
finance 4% −$2
tech 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -2.3% -11.6% 35% 5% -8.7%
all 44 -2.7% -12.0% 23% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage332d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 -9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $40 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $49 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $15 +$4 +27%
Will anyone say "Instagram" during the Q2 2025 Meta earnings call? Aug 10 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jul 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 28 $6 $0 -5%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 28 $69 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 28 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $50 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $49 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $10 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $18 30h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $44 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $44 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 146 history records