Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6be0…8b27 politics 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$16
politics 43% −$20
sports 5% +$79
world 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 104 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 6% -9.5%
all 112 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×15.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage115d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $377 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $248 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $264 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $304 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $296 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $272 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $294 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $309 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $263 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Estonia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 09 $248 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $332 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $534 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $306 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $286 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $565 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $336 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $250 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $287 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $320 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $317 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $45 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $45 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 5d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 5d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 7d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $53 8d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $35 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 11d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $248 19d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $264 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $264 22d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 23d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $304 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $327 24d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $327 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $296 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.98 · official $47.98 (match) · 330 history records