Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be2…bd00 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$269 (-12%) realized −$269 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$461
sports 8% −$169
other 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -42.8% -48.3% 33% 33% -30.7%
≤30d 15 -42.8% -48.3% 33% 33% -30.7%
≤90d 15 -42.8% -48.3% 33% 33% -30.7%
all 15 -42.8% -48.3% 33% 33% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.3% 33% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here -53.2% 27% -37.4%
15% -57.7% 20% -43.4%
20% -61.9% 20% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$129 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $77 −$30 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $117 −$83 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $156 +$54 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $256 −$220 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $422 −$383 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $313 +$238 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $210 −$204 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$104 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $145 +$158 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $172 −$169 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $32 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $46 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $43 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $74 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $126 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $77 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $84 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $78 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $256 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $233 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $358 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records