Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be2…d345 crypto 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$185 (-8%) realized −$185 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%58W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$118
sports 34% −$135
other 20% +$13
weather 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 15 -39.8% -45.5% 33% 33% -50.0%
≤90d 115 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 48% -19.2%
all 115 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 48% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 48% -19.2%
10% -19.4% 40% -26.9%
15% -27.2% 37% -34.0%
20% -34.3% 32% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$18 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses58 / 57
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage71d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bulls win? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$5 +180%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Germany vs. Finland end in a draw? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $19 +$16 +83%
Will New Zealand win? May 29 $14 +$6 +39%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Nepal May 27 $12 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Malta May 21 $61 −$61 -100%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs France May 21 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $10 +$13 +129%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria May 19 $50 +$30 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$10 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 18 $5 +$8 +146%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $40 +$7 +19%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$12 +237%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Everton FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 14 $8 +$8 +101%
T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs C May 14 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 14 $101 +$24 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $7 +$7 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 13 $51 +$28 +54%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $30 +$26 +86%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$21 +413%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Bulls win? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 60¢ $17 22d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 22d
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore BUY Singapore 16¢ $5 22d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 22d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 23d
Will Germany vs. Finland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $30 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 54¢ $19 25d
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 25d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 27d
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Nepal BUY Nepal 89¢ $12 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down $5 34d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Malta BUY Sweden 70¢ $61 34d
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 35d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 35d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria SELL Guernsey 100¢ $0 35d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria SELL Guernsey 100¢ $80 35d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Austria BUY Guernsey 62¢ $50 35d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs France SELL Jersey 100¢ $49 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 35d
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Jersey vs France BUY Jersey 81¢ $40 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 35d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 100¢ $15 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records