Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be8…f449 sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$629 (-12%) realized −$630 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%77W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$123
30 days−$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$633
crypto 9% −$4
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 39% -16.8%
≤30d 48 -29.2% -36.0% 33% 33% -44.0%
≤90d 69 -18.3% -26.0% 38% 38% -26.5%
all 183 -14.3% -22.5% 42% 40% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 40% -21.4%
10% -29.9% 39% -28.9%
15% -36.7% 38% -35.8%
20% -42.9% 37% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$20 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$630
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses77 / 106
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 189
History coverage242d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 54¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $12 +$18 +152%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $39 −$27 -69%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 +$35 +71%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$13 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $42 −$3 -7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$17 -83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$53 +145%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $30 +$16 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $31 +$3 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $51 +$60 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 −$51 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $132 −$130 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $40 +$37 +93%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $28 +$26 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $20 +$21 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $30 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $12 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 21¢ $12 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $39 8h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Germany vs. Côte d' BUY 20¢ $5 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Te BUY 10¢ $5 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $85 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $50 31h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Wil BUY 12¢ $5 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 71¢ $39 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $42 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY $5 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win BUY $5 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $3 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 23¢ $9 4d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 24¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.71 · official $30.71 (match) · 333 history records