Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:03:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6be8…5eac crypto 283 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,112 (-6%) realized −$1,113 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%177W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$245
7 days−$158
14 days−$319
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$483
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -4.5% -13.6% 78% 46% -13.2%
≤30d 159 -9.1% -17.8% 73% 46% -14.2%
≤90d 159 -9.1% -17.8% 73% 46% -14.2%
all 276 -5.9% -14.9% 64% 34% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 34% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 14% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 8% -28.1%
20% -37.3% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses177 / 99
Open positions7
Markets (closed)276 / 283
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$28 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $91 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$43 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $49 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$13 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $91 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $91 −$81 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $122 +$41 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $122 −$68 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $60 +$6 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.57 · official $67.57 (match) · 3500 history records