Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6B 0x6be9…5998 sports 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,631 (+8%) realized +$7,726 · open −$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%130W / 140L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day73.2pace
Fees−$1,839est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,188
7 days+$2,047
14 days+$3,919
30 days+$6,897
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$4,507
other 28% +$2,132
crypto 1% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +52.4% +37.9% 46% 36% -4.5%
≤30d 269 +18.2% +7.0% 48% 40% -2.8%
≤90d 270 +18.1% +6.9% 48% 40% -2.8%
all 270 +18.1% +6.9% 48% 40% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 40% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 27% -12.1%
15% -12.7% 15% -20.6%
20% -21.3% 11% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$43 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$7,726
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses130 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,839
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 271
History coverage30d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day73.2
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 5¢ 0¢ $96 $1 −$95 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 +$637 +2100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,714 +$89 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $389 +$30 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 −$8 -4%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$306 +2973%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $60 +$91 +151%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $144 +$44 +31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,254 +$599 +48%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $165 +$262 +159%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $79 +$18 +22%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,939 +$447 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $629 +$305 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3,554 −$64 -2%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $608 −$600 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $60 +$4 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $918 +$40 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,158 +$12 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $532 +$175 +33%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,215 −$93 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,014 −$76 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $200 −$99 -49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $32 −$31 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $233 −$89 -38%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $182 +$81 +44%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $138 −$136 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $400 +$138 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $206 +$26 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,218 +$133 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,013 −$124 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,012 −$41 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 −$42 -14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,110 −$135 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,217 −$132 -11%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $200 +$203 +102%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,989 −$267 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $121 −$121 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC win on 2026-05-20? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3¢ $12 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $30 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $26 46m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 5¢ $31 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $106 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $1 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $1 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $7 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $44 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $460 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $0 46m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 89¢ $47 46m
England leading at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $9 46m
England leading at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $2 47m
England leading at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $9 47m
England leading at halftime? BUY No 4¢ $11 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $71 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $63 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $1,802 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $148 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $166 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $6 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $132 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $62 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $13 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $16 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 2244 history records