Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6be9…b918 crypto 106 markets active 11d ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$130 (-15%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%34W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$103
other 8% −$33
sports 5% +$46
politics 4% −$30
tech 2% −$16
world 1% −$6
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 +47.8% +33.7% 37% 37% -9.7%
≤90d 39 +7.8% -2.5% 33% 28% -15.1%
all 106 -15.3% -23.4% 32% 28% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 28% -24.7%
10% -30.7% 25% -31.9%
15% -37.4% 22% -38.5%
20% -43.6% 19% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses34 / 72
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage195d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 +$14 +76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1357%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $4 $0 -7%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 28 $25 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 28 $11 +$8 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $4 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 28 $3 +$11 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 10AM ET Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 21 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 21 $50 −$43 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 21 $8 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3PM ET Jan 21 $9 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $22 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 11d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 298 history records