Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6beb…b171 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$3
other 22% +$1
politics 5% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 14% 0% -10.3%
all 40 -4.0% -13.1% 38% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage481d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $30 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $36 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $34 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $12 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump increase cap on H-1B visas in first 100 days? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $2 $0 +21%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump Media invest in Bitcoin before March? Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 25h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 27h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $34 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.26 · official $30.26 (match) · 117 history records