Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6beb…441c other 76 markets active 20h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$122 (+1%) realized +$122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 15% +$17
politics 10% −$6
sports 3% +$124
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.1% +13.2% 25% 25% -5.5%
≤30d 17 +5.8% -4.2% 18% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 55 +4.7% -5.2% 24% 18% -8.1%
all 74 +5.2% -4.8% 27% 19% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 19% -9.0%
10% -13.9% 19% -17.7%
15% -22.2% 16% -25.7%
20% -29.8% 12% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage610d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$8 +101%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $205 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? Jun 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 23 $23 $0 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 12 $10 +$17 +158%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $158 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $342 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $350 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $163 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $158 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $11 +$8 +72%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $8 +$11 +138%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 02 $26 +$23 +91%
Predators vs. Lightning Mar 30 $26 +$13 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $55 20h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 28h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 30h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $7 2d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $25 14d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 17d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $27 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.95 · official $164.95 (match) · 301 history records