Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bed…438c crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$166 (-10%) realized −$166 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$156
crypto 33% −$45
other 27% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 62% -35.0%
≤30d 8 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 62% -35.0%
≤90d 8 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 62% -35.0%
all 39 -22.5% -29.9% 49% 49% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 49% -30.4%
10% -36.6% 49% -37.1%
15% -42.7% 41% -43.1%
20% -48.3% 26% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$37 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$166
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage219d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$8 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$27 +76%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jan 19 $77 −$77 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jan 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jan 19 $40 +$29 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 19 $40 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jan 19 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 19 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 18 $61 +$19 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 18 $8 +$4 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 18 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 18 $49 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Eagles vs. Packers Jan 18 $11 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 11PM ET Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 12AM ET Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10AM ET Jan 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bulls vs. Pelicans Jan 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Raptors vs. Hornets Jan 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Jan 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: MIBR Female vs G2 Gozen (BO3) Jan 18 $169 −$169 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs MIBR Female (BO5) Nov 30 $37 +$19 +52%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 29 $27 +$10 +39%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Nov 27 $56 +$38 +67%
Knicks vs. Hornets Nov 27 $70 +$30 +43%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $50 +$22 +45%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 25 $80 +$25 +31%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 25 $40 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 54m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $150 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $77 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $40 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $10 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $40 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 149d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $50 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $30 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $31 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $20 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 150d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 150d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records