Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6B 0x6bee…78bb other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$104
sports 7% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.8% -17.5% 64% 55% -4.9%
≤30d 11 -8.8% -17.5% 64% 55% -4.9%
≤90d 11 -8.8% -17.5% 64% 55% -4.9%
all 11 -8.8% -17.5% 64% 55% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 55% -4.9%
10% -25.4% 55% -14.0%
15% -32.6% 36% -22.3%
20% -39.2% 27% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$44 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage3d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 78¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $71 +$44 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$17 -82%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$22 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 +$46 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $91 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $96 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.83 · official $79.83 (match) · 22 history records