Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bef…1544 crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$137 (-4%) realized −$501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%39W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day332.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$501
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 32% -25.9%
≤30d 121 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 32% -25.9%
≤90d 121 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 32% -25.9%
all 121 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 32% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover332.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 32% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 27% -33.0%
15% -42.0% 26% -39.4%
20% -47.7% 21% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$19 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses39 / 82
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day332.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$6 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $69 −$27 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $92 −$88 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$88 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$20 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$21 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$26 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$65 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$29 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$16 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $28 +$56 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$85 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$51 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$67 +584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $37 −$11 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1511 history records