Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bef…f650 world 33 markets active 16h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-14%) realized −$110 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$46
politics 21% −$25
other 15% −$41
tech 10% −$1
sports 6% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 0% -14.8%
≤30d 25 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 12% -21.8%
≤90d 32 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 9% -24.4%
all 32 -29.8% -36.5% 38% 9% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 9% -24.4%
10% -42.6% 6% -31.6%
15% -48.1% 6% -38.2%
20% -53.2% 0% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$110
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage30d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 85¢ 87¢ $54 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Jun 13 $27 −$2 -8%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $46 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $48 −$18 -38%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 −$11 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 05 $30 −$1 -3%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $18 +$2 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 −$7 -25%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 25 $20 −$15 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $30 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 21 $46 −$27 -58%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $18 $0 -1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $11 −$3 -28%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 21 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? May 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $20 −$1 -5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $54 16h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 40h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary SELL No 92¢ $27 2d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 91¢ $2 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY No 86¢ $25 4d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 91¢ $2 4d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $21 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I SELL No 82¢ $25 4d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da SELL No 88¢ $48 4d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $38 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $30 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $55 6d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $20 6d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I BUY No 89¢ $27 6d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da BUY No 85¢ $46 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $48 6d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $21 8d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $28 8d
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 8d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $65 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 12d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL No 95¢ $20 17d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 86¢ $18 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $23 23d
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.46 · official $55.59 (match) · 65 history records