Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

6B 0x6bf4…b7a7 sports 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$996 (+9%) realized +$996 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate40%8W / 12L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$504per market

Trades / day30.1pace

Fees−$106est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	40%	30%	+0.5%
≤30d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	40%	30%	+0.5%
≤90d	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	40%	30%	+0.5%
all	20	+11.2%	+0.6%	40%	30%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.1 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+0.6%	30%	+0.5%
10%	-9.0%	25%	-9.1%
15% ← realistic here	-17.8%	15%	-17.9%
20%	-25.9%	15%	-26.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$245 vs −$63 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$996

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses8 / 12

Est. fees paid−$106

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 22

History coverage3d

Avg bet$504

Trades / day30.1

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 24	$2,467	−$37	-2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$115	+$190	+165%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	Jun 24	$102	+$158	+154%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$102	−$31	-30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$102	−$20	-19%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	Jun 24	$103	−$103	-100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	Jun 24	$307	−$307	-100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	Jun 24	$1,176	+$407	+35%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$317	−$28	-9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$302	−$17	-6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$276	−$14	-5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$273	−$30	-11%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 24	$101	−$45	-44%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 24	$2	+$1	+31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$505	+$10	+2%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$380	+$947	+249%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$492	−$113	-23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$2	$0	+16%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Jun 23	$11	−$10	-86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$3,758	+$245	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	SELL No	100¢	$1,465	13m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$305	16m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY No	100¢	$1,464	21m
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	SELL Yes	55¢	$260	29m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$71	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	SELL No	86¢	$965	1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY No	89¢	$1,003	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? AND Exact Score: Switzerland	BUY	26¢	$102	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	27¢	$83	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	37¢	$115	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	32¢	$102	2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	2h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	SELL	0¢	$0	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	SELL	0¢	$0	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	SELL	99¢	$1,584	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0	BUY	73¢	$1,176	20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$288	20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	15¢	$285	20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$263	20h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$243	20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	12¢	$56	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	66¢	$3	20h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U	BUY	26¢	$307	21h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama vs. Croatia en	BUY	11¢	$103	22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$54	22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$16	22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$27	22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$3	22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	68¢	$123	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records