Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bf6…2529 weather 944 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,890 (+14%) realized +$1,915 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%557W / 587L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day82.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$485
7 days+$34
14 days+$562
30 days+$1,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% +$1,724
world 3% +$4
sports 2% −$6
other 2% +$19
politics 0% −$9
crypto 0% −$7
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 -57.9% -61.9% 18% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 1017 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 30% +1.7%
≤90d 1144 -15.6% -23.7% 49% 29% -0.6%
all 1144 -15.6% -23.7% 49% 29% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 29% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 20% -10.1%
15% -37.6% 14% -18.8%
20% -43.7% 11% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized+$1,915
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses557 / 587
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions44
Markets (closed)1144 / 944
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day82.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 1144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $150 $151 +$2 (+1%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 85¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 76¢ 66¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 94¢ 83¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 94¢ 82¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 455 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on April 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on April 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 19? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or higher on May 2? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C or higher on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 -85%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on April 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 20? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on May 5? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-02? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on April 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 14? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -156%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 7? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on April 28? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.86 · official $690.86 (match) · 3500 history records