Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6B 0x6bfb…dcdc other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$929 (-23%) realized −$429 · open −$500

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%6W / 21L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$142per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$100

7 days−$200

14 days−$200

30 days−$200

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-19.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	9	+13.5%	+2.7%	22%	22%	-23.3%
all	27	-10.8%	-19.3%	22%	22%	-34.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.3%	22%	-34.9%
10%	-27.1%	22%	-41.2%
15%	-34.1%	15%	-46.8%
20%	-40.6%	15%	-52.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -85% → late +58% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$160 vs −$90 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$429

Unrealized−$500

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses6 / 21

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)27 / 28

History coverage231d

Avg bet$142

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 27 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	No	59¢	0¢	$500	$0	−$500 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid?	May 05	$29	+$171	+596%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$38	−$37	-98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	Apr 29	$32	−$31	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Apr 28	$51	−$50	-98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 15	$90	+$203	+226%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?	Apr 15	$147	−$145	-98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Feb 28	$150	+$48	+32%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	Feb 26	$130	+$67	+52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	Feb 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?	Feb 15	$24	−$24	-100%
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Feb 11	$135	+$121	+89%
Superform FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Feb 09	$20	−$20	-100%
Superform FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Feb 09	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?	Jan 17	$262	−$262	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-14?	Jan 14	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14?	Jan 14	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11?	Jan 11	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?	Dec 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30?	Nov 30	$196	−$196	-100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30?	Nov 30	$34	−$12	-36%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Nov 27	$300	−$300	-100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$189	−$189	-100%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?	Nov 24	$112	−$112	-100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Nov 24	$997	+$350	+35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	59¢	$506	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	28¢	$51	46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	3d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	42d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid?	BUY Yes	14¢	$29	43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	37¢	$38	48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29?	BUY Yes	31¢	$32	48d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	49d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?	SELL Yes	100¢	$293	62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$90	62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?	BUY Yes	49¢	$147	62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL No	99¢	$25	109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL No	99¢	$16	109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL No	99¢	$58	109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	SELL No	99¢	$99	109d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	SELL No	98¢	$197	111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY Yes	10¢	$18	121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	BUY Yes	10¢	$1	121d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY No	75¢	$150	121d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?	BUY No	65¢	$130	121d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?	BUY Yes	12¢	$24	121d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	125d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	125d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	125d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	65¢	$151	126d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	65¢	$104	126d
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	31¢	$120	127d
Superform FDV above $300M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	127d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.42 (match) · 50 history records