Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bff…8124 weather 473 markets active 3d ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-18%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%119W / 354L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day61.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$305
14 days−$269
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$162
crypto 49% −$83
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 -54.9% -59.2% 11% 10% -65.0%
≤30d 473 -23.9% -31.2% 25% 23% -30.3%
≤90d 473 -23.9% -31.2% 25% 23% -30.3%
all 473 -23.9% -31.2% 25% 23% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 23% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 21% -36.9%
15% -43.8% 18% -43.0%
20% -49.3% 15% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -67% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses119 / 354
Open positions0
Markets (closed)473 / 473
History coverage16d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day61.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 473 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +336%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1223 history records