Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c01…0113 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$85 (+11%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%48W / 38L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +9.4% -1.0% 61% 59% +3.9%
≤30d 86 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 53% -4.6%
≤90d 86 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 53% -4.6%
all 86 +2.8% -7.0% 56% 53% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -4.6%
10% -15.9% 48% -13.7%
15% -24.0% 30% -22.1%
20% -31.5% 16% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses48 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage28d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$10 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$17 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$19 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$14 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$12 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$15 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 26 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $9 −$5 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $9 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $5 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $18 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $19 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records