Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c01…7b6f other 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 234L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 26% −$23
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$4
culture 6% −$6
world 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage134d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $464 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $343 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $600 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $854 +$1 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $629 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $237 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $395 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $674 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $543 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $409 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $376 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $581 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $110 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 25m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 4h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 6h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 7h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $28 7h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $36 10h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $64 12h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 13h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $48 25h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $48 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $64 28h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $65 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 31h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 32h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 34h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 35h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 41h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $65 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1312 history records