Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6C 0x6c01…48c8 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$132 (-5%) realized −$130 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate61%51W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$62
14 days−$29
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$5
world 21% −$100
sports 20% −$81
other 14% +$36
tech 12% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 59% 56% +1.3%
≤30d 63 +11.2% +0.6% 54% 46% -11.4%
≤90d 72 +8.5% -1.9% 56% 40% -11.1%
all 84 +7.0% -3.2% 61% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 36% -14.3%
10% -12.5% 31% -22.5%
15% -20.9% 29% -30.0%
20% -28.7% 25% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses51 / 33
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)84 / 95
History coverage125d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? No 91¢ 90¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? No 87¢ 86¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? No 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? No 37¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Curaçao 35¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 32¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 18¢ 17¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Paraguay 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $38 +$4 +10%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$15 +276%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 +$7 +46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $9 +$12 +129%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$17 +442%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 +$13 +158%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $8 +$13 +158%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $34 +$6 +17%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$13 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 +$7 +48%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $9 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $13 +$9 +70%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $9 +$12 +140%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $11 +$10 +83%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11 +$10 +90%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 +$13 +158%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$15 +206%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 +$11 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $11 +$10 +90%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $27 +$3 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $13 +$9 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 +$5 +31%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $12 +$9 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 −$1 -2%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$13 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$4 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $9 +$12 +129%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$14 +206%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 87¢ $14 52m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $13 54m
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $7 54m
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $7 54m
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $8 55m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 18¢ $4 56m
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 Australia? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $12 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $6 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 16¢ $3 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 47¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $9 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $4 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $11 26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $14 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? BUY No 91¢ $38 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $11 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 26h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 26¢ $6 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY No 58¢ $12 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $11 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 85¢ $34 2d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $9 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $9 2d
England leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $8 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $4 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.32 · official $119.33 (match) · 157 history records