Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c04…a593 sports 692 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,077 (-2%) realized −$1,068 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%235W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$699
7 days−$725
14 days−$7,516
30 days−$4,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$2,371
other 17% +$877
crypto 6% −$543
world 2% −$104
politics 1% +$357
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -20.6% -28.2% 32% 32% -31.8%
≤30d 176 -37.1% -43.1% 25% 25% -36.7%
≤90d 571 -6.0% -15.0% 32% 29% -13.7%
all 690 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 30% -13.0%
10% -23.5% 28% -21.4%
15% -30.9% 25% -29.0%
20% -37.7% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$41 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$1,068
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses235 / 455
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions2
Markets (closed)690 / 692
History coverage163d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 690 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 58¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 28¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $119 −$107 -90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $152 −$152 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $114 −$48 -42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$45 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $115 +$207 +180%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $69 +$48 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$60 +118%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 +$91 +179%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$40 -44%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $74 −$73 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $71 +$88 +123%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$29 -57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $91 −$90 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$89 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 +$29 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $56 +$72 +129%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $120 −$5 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +140%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $61 +$77 +126%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$46 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $119 −$9 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$48 -94%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $41 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $12 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $152 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $164 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $102 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $101 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 23¢ $66 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 35¢ $98 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 13¢ $51 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $119 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $114 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $102 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 70¢ $96 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $238 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $322 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $51 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $111 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $69 3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $115 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $142 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $51 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.72 · official $50.72 (match) · 1573 history records