Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c05…c270 world 345 markets active 4h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate57%179W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$67
other 36% +$5
politics 9% +$4
tech 3% −$3
finance 2% −$1
crypto 2% +$15
sports 1% +$12
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 17% -20.5%
≤30d 80 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 19% -11.3%
≤90d 263 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 19% -9.5%
all 312 -2.0% -11.3% 57% 18% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 18% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 10% -19.0%
15% -27.6% 7% -26.8%
20% -34.7% 4% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses179 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions33
Markets (closed)312 / 345
History coverage116d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 61¢ 84¢ $32 $44 +$12 (+38%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+3%)
Remote IPO before 2027? No 80¢ 78¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+29%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $13 $13 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Ben Pasternak jailed? No 80¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No 78¢ 98¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 76¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No 23¢ 82¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+259%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 87¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Ramp IPO before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Databricks IPO before 2027? No 69¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +85%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$10 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $35 −$2 -6%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $18 −$11 -59%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $25 −$1 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 +$14 +37%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $18 +$1 +8%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 -2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $27 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $14 +$6 +39%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +1%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $13 +$2 +14%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8 $0 +2%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$3 +21%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 +$1 +7%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $7 −$4 -60%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $16 +$2 +11%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 +$1 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 30 $158 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 62¢ $4 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $5 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $0 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $0 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $4 14h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL No 49¢ $6 20h
Will Elon Musk attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 97¢ $5 25h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $4 25h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 32h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 36h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 41h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 42h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $4 46h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 2d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.79 · official $272.70 (match) · 3237 history records