Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6C 0x6c0b…ece6 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$188 (-13%) realized −$187 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$79per market

Trades / day2.1pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$6

7 days+$6

14 days+$27

30 days−$190

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-19.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+6.0%	-4.1%	100%	0%	-4.1%
≤30d	17	-10.7%	-19.2%	65%	47%	-21.8%
≤90d	17	-10.7%	-19.2%	65%	47%	-21.8%
all	17	-10.7%	-19.2%	65%	47%	-21.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.2%	47%	-21.8%
10%	-26.9%	35%	-29.2%
15%	-34.0%	24%	-36.1%
20%	-40.5%	12%	-42.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -23% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$68 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$187

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions1

Markets (closed)17 / 18

History coverage20d

Avg bet$79

Trades / day2.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-95%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	Jun 29	$100	+$6	+6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	Jun 20	$30	+$12	+41%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	Jun 19	$30	+$9	+29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	Jun 14	$100	−$100	-100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 13	$114	+$83	+73%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 13	$99	+$14	+14%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Jun 12	$140	−$100	-71%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$86	+$46	+54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$61	−$26	-44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$100	+$15	+15%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$159	−$158	-100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	Jun 10	$29	−$20	-68%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	Jun 10	$148	+$3	+2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$5	−$4	-76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner	Jun 09	$154	+$5	+3%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo	Jun 09	$14	+$4	+29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$48	+$21	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	SELL T1	99¢	$106	1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In	BUY T1	93¢	$100	3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	SELL EDward Gaming	28¢	$42	8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	19¢	$30	8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	SELL EDward Gaming	28¢	$39	9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof	BUY EDward Gaming	21¢	$30	9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs	BUY G2 Esports	82¢	$100	15d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	SELL EDward Gaming	81¢	$197	15d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY EDward Gaming	46¢	$114	15d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	87¢	$49	16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	87¢	$50	16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	SELL Hanwha Life Esports	21¢	$28	16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	94¢	$130	16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	SELL Hanwha Life Esports	91¢	$12	16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	BUY Hanwha Life Esports	77¢	$10	16d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	17d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	SELL Spirit	100¢	$132	17d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	65¢	$35	17d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Team Falcons	37¢	$34	17d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	64¢	$51	17d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$61	17d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	SELL Vitality	97¢	$115	17d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Vitality	84¢	$100	17d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	71¢	$8	18d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	84¢	$151	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY Global Esports	83¢	$20	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	SELL XLG Gaming	18¢	$5	18d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	SELL FUT Esports	100¢	$151	18d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	BUY FUT Esports	96¢	$48	18d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	BUY FUT Esports	99¢	$100	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 45 history records