Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c10…df5c other 304 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$67,389 (-23%) realized −$67,332 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate69%156W / 70L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$951per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$64,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,140
7 days+$652
14 days+$11,820
30 days−$46,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$17,888
politics 32% −$60,939
world 11% +$1,677
sports 5% +$261
crypto 5% −$2,002
finance 3% −$613
tech 1% +$498
economics 0% +$26
culture 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +36.0% +23.0% 69% 56% -6.3%
≤30d 110 +11.1% +0.5% 71% 52% -29.3%
≤90d 205 +20.2% +8.7% 69% 51% -26.5%
all 226 +20.2% +8.8% 69% 51% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.8% 51% -25.8%
10% -1.6% 31% -32.9%
15% ← realistic here -11.1% 23% -39.4%
20% -19.9% 19% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$1,130 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$64,321
Realized−$67,332
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses156 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions109
Markets (closed)226 / 304
History coverage124d
Avg bet$951
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $18,625 $18,661 +$36 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $7,366 $7,423 +$58 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 56¢ $6,211 $4,929 −$1,281 (-21%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $4,176 $4,545 +$369 (+9%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $2,487 $3,085 +$598 (+24%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 82¢ 85¢ $2,911 $3,009 +$98 (+3%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $2,888 $2,905 +$17 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $1,233 $1,615 +$382 (+31%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 24¢ $1,970 $1,131 −$840 (-43%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $948 $1,058 +$110 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $880 $915 +$35 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $808 $847 +$40 (+5%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 77¢ 80¢ $804 $845 +$42 (+5%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $800 $796 −$4 (-1%)
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $547 $621 +$74 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $528 $574 +$46 (+9%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $556 $569 +$13 (+2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $434 $500 +$66 (+15%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? No 88¢ 95¢ $463 $499 +$36 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 72¢ $426 $429 +$3 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $372 $427 +$55 (+15%)
Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%? No 90¢ 82¢ $450 $412 −$38 (-8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $400 $400 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $356 $357 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombia Jun 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 27 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win less than 10% of votes in the first round of Jun 27 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the Jun 27 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $401 −$401 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win between 35% and 40% of votes in the Jun 27 $25 +$16 +67%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Paloma Valencia win the first round of the 2026 Colombian preside Jun 26 $10 +$68 +647%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $220 +$180 +82%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $120 +$80 +67%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $410 +$90 +22%
Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian pr Jun 26 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 25 $22 +$178 +800%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $3,387 +$418 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,725 +$535 +31%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $89 +$9 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $461 +$49 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,303 +$121 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $201 +$27 +13%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $323 +$119 +37%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $262 +$96 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,408 +$143 +10%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 +$60 +196%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $179 +$21 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $601 −$601 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,818 +$281 +10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,406 +$209 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,901 +$42 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,943 +$2,631 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$2 +5%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $145 +$55 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,360 +$2,465 +57%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $420 +$180 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $122 +$18 +15%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $6,655 +$3,179 +48%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $134 +$20 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $613 −$613 -100%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $22,142 +$2,810 +13%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 15 $173 +$27 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $39 21m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $94 23m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $94 36m
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $3,132 41m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $802 1h
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $201 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $301 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $128 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $240 2h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 3h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $110 3h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $466 3h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $109 3h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $435 5h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $85 5h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 5h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 6h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 84¢ $169 6h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $1,331 6h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY Yes 89¢ $32 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,268 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 6h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY Yes 89¢ $387 6h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $803 6h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $8,200 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $25 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $28 3d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $390 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64,321.28 · official $64,321.28 (match) · 3000 history records