Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6c12…a143 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$145 (+11%) realized +$146 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$335
other 35% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 41% +0.3%
≤30d 17 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 41% +0.3%
≤90d 17 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 41% +0.3%
all 17 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 41% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 41% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 41% -9.3%
15% -28.8% 35% -18.1%
20% -35.8% 35% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$47 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 39¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $47 +$1 +2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $71 +$53 +74%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $162 +$185 +114%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $122 −$121 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $111 +$88 +79%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $64 +$41 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $51 −$23 -46%
Set 2 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $74 −$28 -39%
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro Jun 17 $20 +$38 +188%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $95 +$28 +30%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $121 +$82 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 20m
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $20 20m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 87¢ $124 57m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 98¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $71 3h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 47¢ $41 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 8h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 60¢ $61 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $25 9h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 37¢ $61 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $51 10h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Coco Gauff 30¢ $27 11h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 54¢ $51 11h
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime BUY Tien 48¢ $51 11h
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime BUY Tien 63¢ $61 11h
Set 2 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff BUY Gauff 47¢ $20 11h
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Fery 60¢ $64 11h
Set 2 Winner: Badosa vs Gauff BUY Gauff 48¢ $10 12h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Clement Tabur 46¢ $45 12h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 73¢ $74 12h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 56¢ $10 12h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 45¢ $41 12h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Frances Tiafoe 98¢ $123 13h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 71¢ $20 13h
Set 2 Winner: Tiafoe vs Shimabukuro BUY Tiafoe 34¢ $20 13h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Frances Tiafoe 76¢ $75 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.66 · official $28.66 (match) · 38 history records