Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c12…748f other 435 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,700 (-2%) realized −$2,087 · open −$611
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate51%165W / 158L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$262est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$11,464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$962
7 days−$322
14 days+$75
30 days+$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$2,822
sports 17% +$20
tech 12% +$39
politics 10% +$94
crypto 8% +$148
finance 6% −$61
world 1% +$8
economics 0% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -14.3% -22.5% 48% 26% -9.9%
≤30d 225 -11.1% -19.6% 52% 24% -7.5%
≤90d 323 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 21% -10.9%
all 323 -12.2% -20.6% 51% 21% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 21% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 15% -19.4%
15% -35.1% 11% -27.2%
20% -41.5% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$80 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$11,464
Realized−$2,087
Unrealized−$611
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses165 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$262
Open positions112
Markets (closed)323 / 435
History coverage64d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 112 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? No 88¢ 82¢ $1,896 $1,780 −$117 (-6%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $824 $794 −$31 (-4%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $691 $677 −$14 (-2%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $617 $627 +$9 (+2%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 85¢ 90¢ $555 $587 +$33 (+6%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Under 72¢ 86¢ $338 $404 +$67 (+20%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 90¢ $391 $383 −$9 (-2%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? No 95¢ 95¢ $358 $358 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 87¢ 95¢ $320 $348 +$28 (+9%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? No 94¢ 96¢ $313 $320 +$7 (+2%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Côte dIvoire 96¢ 98¢ $274 $281 +$7 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 89¢ 53¢ $453 $271 −$183 (-40%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 38¢ $315 $260 −$55 (-17%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 71¢ 89¢ $203 $255 +$52 (+26%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? No 85¢ 86¢ $238 $239 +$1 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 24¢ $386 $231 −$155 (-40%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? No 87¢ 91¢ $212 $223 +$10 (+5%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $170 $175 +$5 (+3%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? No 85¢ 72¢ $192 $163 −$29 (-15%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? No 83¢ 80¢ $167 $160 −$7 (-4%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $165 $157 −$8 (-5%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 48¢ $136 $135 −$1 (-1%)
Austria leading at halftime? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $119 $115 −$4 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 89¢ 97¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $37 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $46 +$1 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $243 +$26 +11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $243 +$26 +11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $47 +$35 +73%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $285 +$74 +26%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $156 +$9 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $460 +$44 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $219 −$213 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $567 +$87 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $469 −$6 -1%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $529 +$111 +21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $278 +$16 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +149%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $306 −$298 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $705 +$6 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 14 $162 −$37 -23%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $805 −$2 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $488 +$10 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -78%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $1 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $205 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $39 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $22 +$3 +14%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 +$7 +31%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -81%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,078 +$669 +62%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 +$9 +114%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $827 +$98 +12%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +12%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $590 +$322 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $287 −$280 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $51 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $108 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $229 +$26 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $749 +$40 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $41 +$7 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 +$8 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $435 +$478 +110%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 14 $393 +$32 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $410 −$24 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $179 −$174 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 9m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 9m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 10m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY No 97¢ $72 10m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 14m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 14m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $40 14m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 14m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 19m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $12 21m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 21m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $2 22m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $4 23m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $34 25m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 27m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $229 28m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 29m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $0 31m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $15 31m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $3 32m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $373 33m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $152 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,463.60 · official $11,499.34 (match) · 2685 history records