Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c16…2213 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-17%) realized −$378 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$272
sports 31% −$183
world 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 19% -27.9%
≤30d 54 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 19% -27.9%
≤90d 54 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 19% -27.9%
all 54 +3.1% -6.7% 20% 19% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 19% -27.9%
10% -15.7% 15% -34.8%
15% -23.8% 13% -41.1%
20% -31.3% 11% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$25 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$378
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage7d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $95 $109 +$14 (+15%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+600%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $6 +$114 +1843%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $44 −$3 -6%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $38 +$16 +41%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $36 −$26 -73%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $17 +$83 +474%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $10 +$101 +980%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $35 −$33 -94%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $29 −$13 -47%
Norway vs. France: Neither team to score first? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $258 −$160 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 +$20 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$39 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $141 −$93 -66%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$6 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$4 -13%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $63 +$100 +158%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 −$108 -71%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $99 −$49 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $95 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 2h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 5h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 40¢ $41 5h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 5h
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 6h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 9h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $44 9h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 9h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 9h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.91 · official $113.93 · 94 history records