Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c17…0b53 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 435d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$8
other 32% +$2
politics 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.1% -4.9% 50% 20% -6.8%
≤30d 19 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 19 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 11% -8.4%
all 36 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 6% -8.5%
10% -16.8% 3% -17.3%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.69 per $1 lost it wins $9.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

435d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage435d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $37 +$5 +14%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $41 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $23 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 01 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $23 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $21 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election? Apr 15 $22 $0 +1%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 14 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $43 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $33 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $5 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $18 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $8 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records