Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c1f…9a5a world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+2%) realized +$72 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$64
other 34% −$7
sports 11% +$13
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +114.7% +94.3% 53% 6% -6.6%
≤90d 23 +83.3% +65.8% 48% 4% -7.1%
all 41 +46.1% +32.2% 46% 2% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.2% 2% -7.7%
10% +19.5% 2% -16.6%
15% +8.0% 2% -24.6%
20% -2.6% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.38 per $1 lost it wins $5.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage335d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 74¢ $143 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $142 +$2 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $143 −$2 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $158 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $143 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $86 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $88 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $143 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $7 −$3 -40%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $113 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $132 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $141 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $27 −$4 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $234 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $3 +$64 +2329%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $59 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $18 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $95 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Jock Landale: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $189 +$6 +3%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 09 $166 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $166 $0 +0%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 07 $13 −$5 -34%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 21 $94 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 21 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? Jul 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 21 $94 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $143 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $14 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $70 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $41 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $19 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $106 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $96 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $81 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $61 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $51 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $39 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $68 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $158 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $84 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $143 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $95 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $48 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $144 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 12d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.85 · official $141.85 (match) · 166 history records