Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c25…3703 crypto 950 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate83%793W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$41
14 days+$47
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$47
weather 4% −$32
sports 3% −$58
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +3.9% -6.0% 94% 21% -6.7%
≤30d 135 +2.8% -7.0% 94% 16% -7.3%
≤90d 135 +2.8% -7.0% 94% 16% -7.3%
all 950 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 20% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 20% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 10% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 6% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses793 / 157
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)950 / 950
History coverage185d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 950 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $42 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $39 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $38 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $32 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6PM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $24 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Jun 26 $14 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$6 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $38 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $35 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $36 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $35 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $37 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2367 history records