Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c27…b88c crypto 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-1%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%77W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days+$17
14 days+$5
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$264
sports 7% +$36
other 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.7% -17.4% 35% 35% -2.9%
≤30d 29 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 31% -2.0%
≤90d 177 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 42% -14.2%
all 177 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 42% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 42% -14.2%
10% -26.5% 41% -22.4%
15% -33.6% 37% -29.9%
20% -40.1% 34% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses77 / 100
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage36d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +177%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$43 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $31 +$48 +158%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 13 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 13 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 13 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $40 −$38 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 5h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 39¢ $10 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.77 · official $1.77 (match) · 462 history records