Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6c27…4f52 crypto 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$134 (-5%) realized −$134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%90W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$42
sports 2% −$49
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 56% -12.7%
≤30d 114 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 56% -12.7%
≤90d 114 -4.6% -13.7% 79% 56% -12.7%
all 115 -4.9% -13.9% 78% 56% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 56% -12.8%
10% -22.2% 23% -21.2%
15% -29.7% 10% -28.8%
20% -36.6% 7% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$19 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses90 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage110d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $58 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $59 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $59 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $38 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $60 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $58 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $59 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $60 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $59 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $59 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $60 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $39 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records