Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c27…f2aa sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$471 (+8%) realized +$439 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$130
other 38% +$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 45% -1.9%
≤30d 38 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 45% -1.9%
≤90d 38 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 45% -1.9%
all 38 -4.0% -13.2% 45% 45% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 45% -1.9%
10% -21.5% 45% -11.3%
15% -29.1% 45% -19.9%
20% -36.0% 42% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$100 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$632
Realized+$439
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 55¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 56¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 +$65 +65%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $506 +$326 +64%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $202 +$110 +54%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$84 +82%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $47 +$305 +650%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$100 +99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $506 +$319 +63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $303 +$145 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 +$98 +96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$72 +71%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $176 +$114 +65%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 +$283 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $102 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $101 17h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 25h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $506 25h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $312 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 25h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY No 64¢ $202 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 27h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $101 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 41h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 41h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 47h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 47h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 47h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 47h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 47h
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 47h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $608 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $824 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $217 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $632.31 · official $632.33 (match) · 63 history records