Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c28…b41c crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+10%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$4
sports 9% +$2
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.8% +0.3% 68% 59% -10.1%
≤30d 22 +10.8% +0.3% 68% 59% -10.1%
≤90d 22 +10.8% +0.3% 68% 59% -10.1%
all 22 +10.8% +0.3% 68% 59% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 59% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 45% -18.7%
15% -18.1% 36% -26.5%
20% -26.1% 32% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$2 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $1.06 (match) · 96 history records