Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c28…a219 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-11%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$16
economics 20% +$4
sports 6% +$3
other 6% −$1
politics 6% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +109.8% +89.8% 100% 75% +58.2%
≤30d 4 +109.8% +89.8% 100% 75% +58.2%
≤90d 4 +109.8% +89.8% 100% 75% +58.2%
all 24 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 46% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 46% -20.5%
10% -30.0% 38% -28.1%
15% -36.8% 38% -35.0%
20% -43.0% 25% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage218d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Feb 24 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 24 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 14 $16 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 06 $1 −$1 -99%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $6 +$5 +83%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 11 $3 +$3 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 15h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $2 15h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $1 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 111d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 18¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 129d
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No $0 133d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28? BUY Down 21¢ $1 138d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 26¢ $2 138d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 138d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 154d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 158d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 175d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 182d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.99 (match) · 45 history records